The long end of the Treasury curve includes the 10-year, 20-year and 30-year. If the Fed tightens to cut off inflation, they'll only be able to do it a few times. The paring back of bond buying would be its first real step to dismantle the extraordinary easing it undertook to help the economy in the pandemic. The Fed is buying $120 billion in Treasury and mortgage securities each month, and it has said it would slowly wind down that program before it begins to raise interest rates. We're back to 1.20s ," he said.īriggs said the lower yields could reverse as the Fed gets to its Jackson Hole symposium in late August, where many Fed watchers believe it will begin to signal it will take action to taper back its bond purchases. The sustained nature of the move is what's surprising. "It's getting more attention because China's numbers weren't that good, and you've got the delta variant. NatWest Markets head of global strategy John Briggs said the growth scare and Fed tightening to stop inflation are two themes that could stay in the market for weeks. Growth is then expected to slow to a median 8% in the third quarter.īut the concerns about the economy have piled up, with the delta variant of Covid increasingly a worry should restrictions be once more put in place. Second-quarter growth was expected to be a median 9%, according to economists surveyed in the CNBC/Moody's Analytics rapid update. When yields first began falling, the market chatter focused on bonds reacting to growth peaking in the second quarter and then falling off to a still relatively high level. The move lower in yields in the 10-year and 30-year bond have been deeper and longer than initially expected. Fed officials have emphasized that they were aware that the unique way in which the economy shutdown would send inflation temporarily higher, due to base effects and supply chain issues. Previously, the Fed would have moved to raise interest rates to stop inflation over its target. The Fed now has said inflation can rise above its target of 2%, and that it will consider an average range of inflation for some time before acting. But since the pandemic, the Fed has also changed how it will react to inflation, and the market is unclear what would trigger a Fed response. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced that idea in Congressional testimony Wednesday and Thursday. The Fed's mettle could be tested by this rate move, since officials have viewed inflation as temporary. The concern is that tightening could then short circuit the recovery. While interest rate hikes are still far in the future, the market has been debating whether hotter inflation could get the Fed to move sooner to end its bond buying program and start its rate hiking agenda. A lower terminal rate would mean a lower end point for the Fed once it begins to raise interest rates. Simply put, strategists say the market is rethinking the strength of the recovery and the Fed's response to inflation.
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"What the market is pricing is effectively, if the Fed pre-empts a really full recovery in growth and inflation, that means they're going to get a lower terminal rate." "What the market continues to hear is the Fed is getting cold feet on flexible average inflation targeting," Bank of America U.S. Personal Loans for 670 Credit Score or Lower Personal Loans for 580 Credit Score or Lower Best Debt Consolidation Loans for Bad Credit
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